Tinubu’s Three Years Record More School Abductions Than Buhari’s Eight Years, Data Shows

Three years into President Bola Tinubu’s administration, Nigeria’s security crisis has deepened across multiple fronts, with school abductions, banditry attacks and terrorism deaths all showing sharp increases compared to the tenure of his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari.

Data from independent monitoring groups, security analysts and media reports paint a grim picture of a country where armed groups have grown bolder, attacks have become more frequent, and the geography of violence has expanded southward into areas previously considered relatively safe.

School Abductions Skyrocket

The most alarming indicator is the surge in mass school abductions. An analysis of reported school kidnapping incidents between May 2023 and May 2026 shows that at least nine mass abductions have occurred under President Tinubu’s administration, involving 551 students and school staff, according to data compiled by Pulse Nigeria. Other reports put the figure even higher, with PRNigeria documenting 758 students and educators abducted in mass school-related attacks since Tinubu assumed office, while the Peoples Gazette reported 597 schoolchildren and students abducted during the same period.

The figure marks a sharp increase when compared to the first three years of former President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration, during which one major school abduction involving 110 students was recorded, representing roughly a 401 per cent rise in the number of victims. By comparison, no school kidnapping incidents were recorded during the first three years of former President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration.

Peter Obi, the 2027 presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, highlighted the disparity, stating: “Under President Buhari’s eight years in office, Nigeria witnessed about ten school abductions. Under President Tinubu’s administration, in just three years, we have already recorded over ten school abductions“.

Major incidents under Tinubu include the March 2024 abduction of 287 pupils and a teacher from LEA Primary and Secondary School in Kuriga, Kaduna State; the November 2025 abduction of 303 students and 12 staff from St Mary’s Catholic School in Papiri, Niger State; and the May 2026 abduction of 39 pupils and seven teachers from three schools in Oriire Local Government Area of Oyo State, marking a significant expansion of the crisis into the South-West.

Banditry Attacks More Than Double

Banditry has emerged as the deadliest driver of violence in Nigeria. According to the Nigeria Violent Conflicts Database 2025 released by Nextier Advisory, banditry accounted for 599 incidents and 2,724 deaths in 2025, a sharp increase from 256 incidents and 1,585 fatalities recorded in 2024.

Overall, violent conflicts across Nigeria claimed 4,654 lives in 2025, while 3,141 persons were kidnapped in 1,274 incidents nationwide. The report warned that insecurity may escalate further in 2026 due to emerging alliances between terrorists and bandits, the expansion of armed groups into new states such as Kwara and Kano, and rising political tensions ahead of the 2027 general election.

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Kidnapping for Ransom Becomes a Thriving Industry

The kidnapping crisis has transformed into a structured, profit-driven enterprise. According to SBM Intelligence, at least 4,722 people were abducted in 997 incidents across the country between July 2024 and June 2025, with kidnappers demanding nearly N48 billion and receiving verified payments of N2.57 billion ($1.66 million).

Mass abductions, defined as incidents with more than five victims, made up nearly a quarter of all cases, overwhelmingly concentrated in the North. The North-West remains the most dangerous region, accounting for 42.6 per cent of incidents and 62.2 per cent of victims, with Zamfara alone recording over 1,200 victims.

Terrorism Deaths on the Rise

Nigeria recorded the largest increase in terrorism deaths globally in 2025, with fatalities rising by 46 per cent from 513 in 2024 to 750, placing the country fourth in the Global Terrorism Index behind Pakistan, Burkina Faso and Niger. The report, produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace, also recorded 171 terrorism incidents in 2025, a 43 per cent increase from 120 incidents in 2024.

ISWAP and Boko Haram accounted for 80 per cent of all terrorism-related deaths in Nigeria in 2025. In February 2026, 162 people were massacred in Kwara State near the border with the Benin Republic, one of the deadliest single attacks in the country’s recent history.

Comparison with Previous Administrations

The trend indicates a steady deterioration. Former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai has claimed that more Nigerians have been killed and kidnapped in Tinubu’s two years than in Buhari’s eight years. An ex-military officer, speaking in a viral video, described Tinubu’s tenure as “worse than Buhari’s” and warned Nigerians about the deteriorating security situation.

Nextier Advisory has noted that the Tinubu administration has “underperformed in nearly all key security indices when compared to the final year of Buhari’s government”.

Government Response

President Tinubu has defended his administration’s security record, claiming in June 2026 that the military had killed 13,000 “terrorists” in the past year and that civilian deaths from insurgents were down by 81 per cent since 2015. The 2026 budget commits N5.41 trillion to defence and security, described by the President as the “largest ever” allocation.

However, the data from independent monitoring groups tells a different story. By nearly every measurable metric, banditry, kidnapping and violence have escalated dramatically under President Tinubu compared to his predecessors. The crisis has also expanded geographically, with mass abductions now occurring in states like Oyo, Kogi, Kebbi, Niger and Kwara, areas that were previously considered less vulnerable to such attacks.

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