How Nigeria Snatched World Cup Playoff Spot Despite Fewer Raw Points

West Africa WeeklyOctober 16, 20251 Mins read43

The Super Eagles’ qualification for the 2026 FIFA World Cup playoffs sent shockwaves across Africa: Nigeria qualified despite others collecting more points at the group stages. The reason lies in CAF’s qualification formula and the rule alterations for group unevenness.

In the CAF qualifying system for the 2026 qualifiers, only the nine group winners automatically qualify for the World Cup. The next four best runners-up proceed to the African playoff round. Nonetheless, because one of the qualifying groups had only five teams (following the withdrawal of Eritrea), CAF required that all matches against the bottom team in each group be annulled when comparing runners-up. That alteration turned out to be vital.

Nigeria finished as runners-up in Group C with 17 points. Their two matches against bottom-of-the-table Zimbabwe only yielded two points, so only those two were deducted, leaving them with 15 adjusted points and a goal difference of +7. Burkina Faso, with a raw total of 21 points, lost six points under the rule (subtracting their wins over Djibouti) and ended up with 15 adjusted points. Despite a +6 goal differential, they failed to beat Nigeria.

On this narrow margin, Nigeria was picked as one of the four best runners-up to contest the CAF playoffs. The 4–0 drubbing of Benin by the Nigerian team, helped along by a hat-trick from Victor Osimhen, booked them that playoff spot.

In the playoff round, Morocco will be joined by four teams: Nigeria, Gabon, DR Congo, and Cameroon. The games will be decided through FIFA ranking, with the top-ranked team playing the lowest-ranked team. The winners will advance to an African final, with the overall winner earning a spot at an inter-confederation playoff in March 2026.

Unconventional as Nigeria’s journey was, it underscores the importance of knowledge of tournament rules and stipulations. The Super Eagles now prepare to face Gabon in the semifinal of the CAF playoff round, a high-stakes match that could see them a step closer to the World Cup proper.