Gold Sector Revival Expected to Drive Mali Growth Next Year

West Africa WeeklyDecember 22, 20251 Mins read1.2k

The International Monetary Fund has projected that Mali’s economy will return to growth in 2026, driven largely by a recovery in gold production following the resolution of a dispute between the government and a major international mining company.

According to the IMF’s assessment, Mali’s economic performance in recent years has been constrained by disruptions in its mining sector, particularly at one of its largest gold complexes. The standoff, which followed changes to the country’s mining code, led to reduced output and weighed heavily on export earnings and public revenue.

That situation has now eased after both sides reached an agreement allowing full operations to resume. The IMF expects the restart of large-scale production to lift overall growth, projecting an expansion of more than 5% in 2026 if output stabilises and global gold prices stabilise in a supportive manner.

Gold remains the backbone of Mali’s economy, accounting for the majority of export income and a significant share of government revenue. Any sustained disruption has immediate consequences for public finances, employment, and investor confidence. The recent settlement is therefore seen as critical not only for production but also for restoring predictability in the country’s investment climate.

While the outlook is improving, the IMF notes that risks remain. Mali continues to face security challenges that affect economic activity in parts of the country, and heavy reliance on a single commodity leaves it vulnerable to global price swings. The Fund has emphasised the need for broad diversification and continued fiscal reforms.

Still, the renewed momentum in the gold sector offers Mali a pathway out of stagnation. If managed effectively, analysts say the rebound could provide the government with breathing space to stabilise the economy and pursue long-term structural changes.