Oyedele Claims Nigeria Is on Track for $1 Trillion Economy While Millions Cannot Afford Food

West Africa WeeklySeptember 2, 20262 Mins read18

Minister of Finance Taiwo Oyedele has declared that Nigeria is on track to become a $1 trillion economy by 2030, citing 4.43 per cent GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026 as evidence that the country’s economic reforms are working. According to Oyedele, the naira has appreciated by more than 12 per cent, the economy has expanded by 17 per cent in US dollar terms, and 27 economic subsectors are now recording growth above 3 per cent. He says Nigeria is well positioned to become Africa’s largest economy by 2028. These numbers sound impressive. But they do not match what Nigerians are living through every single day.

The GDP growth Oyedele is celebrating is nowhere near the 10 to 12 per cent annual growth that Nigeria actually needs to become a $1 trillion economy. Even the government itself has admitted that such a target requires sustained double-digit growth. Yet the International Monetary Fund projects growth of only 4.1 per cent in 2026 and 4.3 per cent in 2027. The difference between 4 per cent and 10 per cent is not a small gap. It is a chasm. The mathematics does not add up.

Oyedele claims the naira has appreciated by 12 per cent, making the economy look bigger in dollar terms. But ordinary Nigerians are not feeling this supposed appreciation. The naira is still trading at over N1,400 to the dollar, and the cost of imported goods, including food, medicine and fuel, is still crushing households. A currency that has lost more than 70 per cent of its value since 2023 does not become a success story just because it regains a fraction of what it lost. The finance minister is celebrating exchange-rate arithmetic while Nigerians are struggling to buy rice.

Oyedele also boasts that subsidy savings have generated N15.8 trillion for the federation. But where is this money? The government has not built new hospitals. It has not fixed the roads. It has not provided electricity. It has not created jobs. Instead, N9.37 trillion has gone to external debt servicing, and N9.39 trillion has been spent on wage adjustments. The government is simply borrowing more to pay off old debts and cover rising salaries. That is not economic transformation. That is survival.

Meanwhile, food inflation remains above 20 per cent. Over 140 million Nigerians live in poverty. The IMF estimates that 27 million Nigerians are food insecure. The unemployment rate is rising. Young people are leaving the country in droves. And yet Oyedele tells Nigerians that the economy is on track and that prosperity is just around the corner. It is the same story Nigerians have heard for decades. GDP grows. The economy expands. But the people remain poor.

Oyedele’s claim that Nigeria is on track for a $1 trillion economy by 2030 is not a plan. It is a fantasy. A $1 trillion economy is a worthy ambition, but ambition is not a plan, and exchange-rate arithmetic is not economic transformation. Until the government can credibly explain how Nigeria will move from roughly 4 per cent growth to the 10 to 12 per cent growth required, the 2030 promise remains a political aspiration and, under the present dynamics, a pipe dream. Nigerians need an economy that works for them, not statistics that merely work for government propaganda.