Manufacturers Warn FG: Don’t Confuse Nominal GDP Growth with Real Economic Progress

The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has cautioned against interpreting the nominal expansion of Nigeria’s rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as evidence of significant economic progress, warning that the revised figures do not reflect the country’s underlying industrial and structural challenges.

Mr. Segun Ajayi-Kadri, Director General of MAN, made the remarks on Tuesday in Lagos while reacting to Nigeria’s reported GDP growth of 3.13 per cent in the first quarter of 2025. The figure marks a modest increase from 2.27 per cent recorded during the same period in 2024, suggesting potential signs of economic recovery.

However, Ajayi-Kadri emphasised that the upward revision in GDP, driven mainly by enhanced data capture in agriculture, services, and the informal sector, should not be mistaken for fundamental economic transformation.

West Africa Weekly earlier reported that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) officially released Nigeria’s rebased GDP figures, updating the country’s economic framework to a 2019 base year.

While the revised data offers a more modern and comprehensive snapshot of the economy, it also exposes a fundamental truth. Despite statistical improvements, real GDP growth remains modest, struggling to outpace both inflation and population growth.

Ajayi-Kadri pointed out that Nigeria’s average real GDP growth between 2020 and 2024 stood at just 1.95 per cent, far below what is required to stimulate inclusive and sustainable development.

He noted that the industry’s share of GDP fell sharply, from 27.65 per cent in the 2010 base year to just 21.08 per cent under the 2019 rebased structure, revealing a troubling shift away from industrial production toward lower-productivity services.

The rebasing confirms that Nigeria’s economy may be statistically larger, but it is not more productive, nor more industrialised, Ajayi-Kadri said.

“While the rebasing exercise reveals a more diversified economy, it also exposes the underperformance of industry, particularly manufacturing, a sector which should be the backbone of Nigeria’s economic transformation.”

He urged the Federal Government to use the rebased GDP not as a moment of celebration but as a clarion call for comprehensive structural reforms that prioritise re-industrialisation.

According to him, sustainable economic growth requires building strong industrial capacity, boosting productivity, and shifting away from dependence on primary commodities and informal trade.

“Without a strong industrial base, GDP expansion may just become a hollow statistic,” he warned.

While the new GDP figure, revised upward to $243 billion, could boost investor sentiment and improve metrics like the debt-to-GDP ratio, Ajayi-Kadri stressed that true economic confidence hinges on structural resilience and industrial depth, not just size.

He called for a manufacturing-led growth strategy anchored on sector-specific interventions such as energy reliability, incentivised local content policies, regulatory streamlining, and strategic trade facilitation to enhance competitiveness.

He also urged the government to revive ailing sub-sectors like textiles and vehicle assembly through targeted industrial policies, long-term financing, and infrastructure investment.

Ajayi-Kadri highlighted the ongoing efforts of the Industrial Revolution Working Group as a positive example of policy direction, but insisted more must be done to link GDP growth with job creation, poverty alleviation, and macroeconomic stability.

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